Oregon taxpayers are projected to receive a larger-than-expected kicker refund when they file their income taxes next year, but state economists continued their warnings that an economic downturn is expected in the near future.
State economist Mark McMullen told lawmakers Wednesday morning there is a "strong consensus" among economic forecasters nationwide that the United States should expect to see a slowdown in the coming years.
Oregon’s tax revenues will likely continue to outstrip expectations in the near term, state economists told lawmakers at the Capitol on Wednesday morning.
For taxpayers, this could mean larger “kicker” rebates when they file their taxes in 2020. Economists are predicting the total rebate could reach $748.5 million, up from $724 million at the last forecast in November.
While Republicans in the Oregon Legislature may seem to be the only members of that body seriously interested in filling the state’s huge and growing unfunded liability in the Oregon Public Employees Retirement System, Democrats have come up with at least one idea. By itself, it’s a doozy.
Oregonians are projected to be receiving an average $336 Kicker Income Tax Refund next year due to a surge in personal tax revenue coming into the state of Oregon that is far above what was projected and expected. At the same time, lawmakers have proposed Senate Joint Resolution 3 (SJR3) which would amend the Oregon Constitution by moving the Kicker funds into an education fund and to do away with the kicker tax refund altogether. The battle over your $336 Kicker Tax Refund check is being debated in Salem.
The re-election of Gov. Kate Brown and Democratic control of the Legislature means a special kind of progress for the state — progress in the amount Oregonians pay in taxes.
Brown is aiming for a $2 billion increase in a state that will already be bringing in record revenues. And just as bad, her allies in the Legislature are planning to swipe the kicker from Oregon taxpayers.
State Rep. Rob Nosse wanted to check to make sure he understood.
“The way I’ve sort of sound-bited this presentation so far … is: Things are awesome, but maybe a recession is coming,” Nosse, D-Portland, said Wednesday during a joint hearing of the House and Senate revenue committees.
Mark McMullen, the state’s top economist, hesitated for a moment before answering: “You know, I think that would be fair.”
McMullen was in the middle of unveiling the state’s latest forecast on taxes that will come into state coffers by the end of the current budget biennium next June, and also to preview how the next two-year budget cycle might play out. And as in the last two-such forecasts, he had good news.
McMullen and state senior economist Josh Lehner now say the state stands to collect more than $75 million more in general fund and lottery resources than expected in the last forecast, unveiled in late August.
That means Oregon taxpayers stand to get a larger tax break. Oregon’s Office of Economic Analysts now expects the state to reward a $724 million kicker, the second largest ever in terms of dollar amount.